Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Predicting Outcome

A competitor writes:

It is very difficult to predict when an appeal will be successful or when a trial court judge may not see things your way...[O]ur customer is solely responsible for gauging the probability of successs given the applicable law.

Predicting outcome is integral to preparing any brief, not just to assessing whether to file one. From numerous arguments, Concision requires sacrificing the ineffective for the persuasive. How many arguments to retain? The decision involves not only which arguments are most persuasive but how persuasive is each, so the ghostwriter can stop arguing when persuasiveness dips. The ghostwriter cannot choose the best argument set without estimating the likelihood that each argument will persuade the court.

Shallow research undermines the brief itself. The ghostwriter who refuses to assess the likelihood of prevailing probably does not master the applicable law.

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